Web development is more than pixel crunching. To create high-traffic web properties you need to think like a mathematician. Yes, retention is important, and so is user-centered design; but probabilistic analysis is most certainly what differentiates great properties from average websites. To make your traffic go up, statistical analysis is still more powerful than design hacks.
How to Tilt the Odds in Your Favor
1. Limit the number of options. Initially, it’s best to have as few links as possible to track everything that goes on in your website/application.
2. Do funnel tracking and try to understand the personas who use your website. Are they shoppers or just lurkers, are they exploring a subject or just trying to find a very particular piece of information.
3. Develop a routine of seasonality research. It’s more important to understand why people came by the thousands to your site than to keep writing content. After understanding the dynamics of your web property (seasonality, audience, traffic referrals) you’ll be able to lead campaigns of natural traffic growth.
Comparing User Research Methods for Information Architecture – http://www.uxmatters.com/mt/archives/2011/06/comparing-user-research-methods-for-information-architecture.php#sthash.SvFmwtRv.dpuf
Decision Theory – https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_theory